It’s ironic, okay. They think it’s some sort of conspiracy that some unforeseen scammers are holding up the price of Bitcoin. Just before this thing’s going to collapse to zero yeah, I mean it’s that time in the cycle, really that , the acculation does come in right, like people buy and they put a floor on the price. The volatility drops – and we saw that – and when was it, was it 2018 bottom , 2015 bottom . We even saw it in the 2012 bottom , so yeah yeah sure people are holding the price up.
That’s because they want Bitcoin.
That’s , being absorbed negative news flow continues to make headlines, but bitcoin’s recent move above seventeen thousand dollars suggests investors are finding reasons to be bullish. Popular Bitcoin and crypto on chain analyst Willie Wu are predicted at the bottom of the current bitcoin bear Market is close, given the share of the Bitcoin Supply that is considered underwater using his so-called Max Payne model, who said on Twitter this weekend that a macro cycle Bottom, for Bitcoin historically, has been seen when 58 percent to 61 percent of the Bitcoin Supply is underwater or held by investors sitting on an unrealized loss. Judging from Wu’s model. That level is now getting close asked by a commenter where exactly the model predicts the bottom to be.
We admitted that the price could still fall further staying the upper part of the Shaded area of his model is at thirteen thousand dollars and Rising quickly in a new interview with Scott melker, who says that buyers have recently stepped in to support Bitcoin, lowering its volatility And putting it in a sideways trend, Wu says: Bitcoin is showing resilience in the face of Market headwinds, including crypto lending firm blockfy’s recent bankruptcy filing Willy Wu has been visibly absent from the crypto space for some months now, though, we tend to tweet, occasionally in this New interview, he shared his analysis of his Bitcoin chart and what he believes is the next direction for the king crypto assets. This is one interview you should watch till the very end to get his full detailed analysis before we listen to Willy Wu. Please support us by Smashing the like button and subscribing to the channel if you are yet to do so. Thanks for your support and for watching our videos, we appreciate you so much like what was really interesting with the black blockify uh bankruptcy. We saw a sort of pullback that it it went down beforehand.
I kind of think that was sort of inside sellers.
Knowing that the announce would happen, it would . You know what is it 500, something like that and got quickly absorbed and then now we’re breaking to the upside. So I I think we’ve got a lot of buyers at this price. Certainly the indicators I have are showing you know.
When you see a lot of coins moving and the price going sideways, , that’s a sure sign of acculation, and so that’s been happening, I’m tracking it it’s it’s that’s the reason why it’s going sideways, the indicators head, bottomed, , particularly one. I was looking at was really Supply. That’S underwater every single cycle. There’S a trend line. Um!
That’S you know it Trends down with Tunes downwards and when that trend line breaks the upside , it’s always happened in the middle of an acculation Zone and it broke in that sideways before the FTX and the FTX uh, surabako and . So, actually, that’s my view is that we were. We were setting up for decent acculation, phase we’re building that multiple month, acculation bottom and then Wham. We had another round of deleveraging, but acculation is still happening so yeah. I agree.
We I think that we would be in the high-ish uh, the not the hash, but let’s say mid between 23 to 24 25 somewhere in there yeah. I think that I think we were setting up for, like 20, like 18 to 24 sort of sideways band. For a few more months, and then we had the you know the d-leveraging happen . So we’re now continuing that in the in the 16 to 18th band now, but yeah. I agree.
I agree so actually there’s a sort of pencil sketch chart that I’ve posted a few times. This is actually a complete profile of the density. You know you can think of this as like a vole profile for the Traders out there we get dense lines.
That’S where a lot of coins have have last traded at that value right, so it’s kind of like a vole profile, but it’s a it’s a it’s a pro profile of how many coins traded at that price out of the whole Bitcoin Supply and I’ve cropped. It off at , you know down to here, which is like there’s another 28 of the coins that traded below uh, that that price here so effectively, I’m looking at the there’s a particular Contour that hits all of these these these price bottoms right And that that’s the Contour of how much of the suppliers underwater, obviously, if you buy here as the price goes under you’re part of the the losing Squad until , you know you hit, it hits a point where it doesn’t go any further.
We cut through all these Contours
That’S your max Pane, and this is a charting as we go through 100 of people in profit at the at the 70 000 top and as we, the price starts trading down. We cut through all these Contours, and now we’re currently at about 45 of the supply is, is underwater and actually what I was saying is you can draw this trend line. Actually, I can’t draw on this chart, but you can draw a trend line here and when you get this sort of change in movement where the supply stats, uh claim and I’m not experience so much pain – that’s usually happens in this acculation about right in that zone. There so it’s before the breakout and it’s been reliable, with past Cycles here and you get the breakout. I think if you draw it to here, that’s the breakout, it’s the middle of the acculation Zone and actually we were forming a really nice train line here.
I remember monitoring this at this point. It hit at this point it hit there and then it snuck out and it stuck out right at that zone here and it was ready to start to . You know put in a floor and then we had the unwind from FTX. So this now looks like a bp and run pattern where we break out of the trend and then we’re now retesting the trend line my opinion that that this will test well and go upwards . So what I’ve done here is actually now also account for the grayscale coins, which is, I think, it’s about three four percent of the Bitcoin Supply, maybe even more four and a half percent yeah, something something crazy: 630 000 Bitcoin in there.
Sixty percent of the coins are underwater
And then, if you look at , what’s happening inside there, roughly 60 percent, assing sixty percent of the coins are underwater. I did a survey and you kind of can account for what’s happening in that black box, which have been shown on chain . The green sort of corrects for that, and so that is currently today at thirteen thousand dollars and claiming quite quickly you can, if we zoom in to the Zone here, you can see that that’s that’s climbing up quite quickly, so we’re we’re getting quite close To a touch doesn’t have to touch every time we we didn’t touch there. Willie Moore also spoke on potential Bitcoin bottom and what his charts are showing to predict that, as far as what price Bitcoin could potentially bottom out, the analyst has his eye on somewhere between. Fourteen thousand dollars and ten thousand dollars which he previously revealed as part of a Max Payne model last week, twelve thousand dollars wouldn’t shock me ten thousand dollars.
Bitcoin could potentially bottom out
I think everyone’s wanting, and so it usually doesn’t happen what everyone wants. So twelve thousand dollars wouldn’t Shock Me. Twelve thousand dollars thirteen thousand dollars it may run away from here or it may drop even further. These are very broad stroked indicators, but it’s probably not a bad time to dollar cost average, and he said, let’s listen to Willy Wu analysis on potential Bitcoin bottom. For this cycle, not only in the bottom, but in this, this beer market that’s starting to agree with each other, whereas the prior Market, there was a little bit of discrepancy in different dimensions that you’re looking at .
So the broadness of this area was wider , but that they’re very much coalescing into a very, very much agreeing, there’s a little bit more uncertain since we’re bottoming it’s widening out, but mostly we’re in a bottom Zone. It’S it’s uh. You know I mean I mean something seriously. Bad would have to happen. I think for us to you know, break this down a lot further and have you know we haven’t done this ?
I guess ever in bitcoin’s history. You know we dipped as low as he up in the early days, but you can also see from these metrics. They were pretty wild yeah pretty wild yeah right 2010. 2000 is completely different industry back then, and it was very wild moves and the metrics were the needles were spinning everywhere, right and and then we sort of capture it . The way this works is a it’s a it’s a four-year metric on standard deviation.
So we haven’t even coalesced four years of back Trace here for it to normalize so here around here it starts to become normalized right so like from here, it’s very, very reliable I mean that’s, that’s that’s my view of it actually. Well, it’s not my view it’s these are. These are metrics built by . All of all of us really , uva’s Federal Reserve, chairman Jerome Powell, wasn’t exactly dovish in his speech Wednesday, but his suggestion that the FED could live with a more moderate interest rate hike at its mid-December meaning sent cryptocurrency prices, not to mention other assets. Higher Bitcoin was recently trading over seventeen thousand one hundred and fifty dollars up.
One point: four percent: over the past 24 hours and its third consecutive day of gains, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, had started surging on Monday, amid investor hopefulness. That Powell and other fed officials have found reassurance and economic indicators showing inflation and the threat of a harsh recession. Waning Bitcoin sank below fifteen thousand five hundred dollars two weeks ago, as markets chewed on Genesis, Global capital’s decision to Halt withdrawals, part of the Fallout from crypto exchange, giant FTX implosion.