ETH/BTC Outlook: Shanghai Hard Fork

By | April 9, 2023

As we near the Shanghai hard fork, it is worthwhile to provide an update on the #ETH / #BTC valuation. In this video we talk about likely moves by #ETH / #BTC, seasonality, and marketcap ratios. What do you think of this analysis? Let me know in the comments!

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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.


Hey everyone and thanks for dripping Back into the cryptoverse today we’re Going to talk about ethereum but more Specifically we’re going to discuss the Eth Bitcoin valuation that is the price Of ethereum relative to bitcoin if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the crypto virus premium at into The link is in the Description below Let’s go ahead and jump in now the Reason I’m providing an update right now Is because this should be a fairly Eventful week for ethereum we have the Shanghai hard Fort coming up I believe On April 12th of course things are Always subject to change we also have CPI on April 12th as well so it should Be a fairly eventful day now because of This because we have a fairly major Upgrade coming I do think it is Worthwhile to talk about the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation not that dissimilar From the you know the idea that we Talked about it the night before the Merge right and and so when you get These pretty big events I think at merits re rediscussing these Ideas now we have made plenty of videos On ethereum and the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation since you know since September But these big events I think do Merit to

Really look down and sit down and look At what’s going on and what we can say Is that so far the idea that we put Forth back in September which was Essentially that ethereum’s Bitcoin Valuation is following Bitcoin USD just Basically lagging it by a year or Something you might wonder what I’m Talking about well if you’re unfamiliar You’ll note that Bitcoin USD in 2021 Sort of had this first second or first Distribution phase where it had Four Peaks that had a summer lull and then it Had a secondary distribution phase where It had these like two little Peaks sort Of the one-two punch and then ever since Then we came back down to the Rain flows Held it for a while and then eventually The floor fell out right Now we we noted this back in September And if you think back to September there Were a lot of people calling for the Flipping and and um all sorts of stuff Right and I’ll admit I mean you know I I’m not completely close to that that Idea eventually although I do think it’s Somewhat unlikely at this point but We’ll talk about that later on and we’ll Talk about sort of the ideas supporting It too but in the short term I think it Makes a lot more sense to assume that The ethereum Bitcoin valuation will Continue down now if you go back to this Video which I would recommend you watch

It I was back when ethereum’s Bitcoin Evaluation was 0.08 we noted that the Bitcoin USD sort of gave us a blueprint For the secondary distribution phase on The ethereum Bitcoin valuation sort of The one-two punch into that secondary Distribution phase and ever since then What has happened is that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has come down now ever Since then as well a lot of people have Gotten excited every time it seems it Sees a move to the upside but what You’ll notice is that ever since you Know September It’s just been a lower high After lower high after lower high after Lower high and likely just another lower High right likely it’s just going to be Another lower high of course that could Be you know proven wrong but it likely Is just going to be some type of a lower High when you look at it you know Retrospectively So again I know these aren’t necessarily Popular views and it wasn’t necessarily A popular view back over here to call it A secondary distribution phase but as History will remember it it was and and Ever since then the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has just been putting in one Lower high after another and I think That is something that you have to Consider given the sustained strength by The ethereum Bitcoin valuation over the

Last couple of years you’ll note that we Really came into this distribution phase Was what I think back in in early 2021 In May of 2021 we have now sat in this Area for approximately two years a Relatively long period of time notes by The way that this summer will hear for Bitcoin USD also corresponded this Happened to be a summer lull for Ethereum’s Bitcoin evaluation as well so Just something again to consider one Thing I’d like to point out And I I do think this is getting a Little bit more macro macro view rather Than the short to medium term I think That to some degree An Inconvenient Truth that a lot of people don’t want to Accept Is that ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation has Been putting in lower highs since 2017. Now listen I know there’s a lot of a lot Of people who who really like ethereum The one that watch this Channel and and They hope I’m wrong on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation at least here in the Short to medium term and I know there Are a lot of people that just think I’m I’m a Perma bear on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation you should know that’s of Course not true uh the very first video Again on my channel was me being very Bullish on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation back in Q3 2019 when it was at 0.02 furthermore if you go back to late

December 2020 the very last video that I Put in 2020 was you know ethereum Ethereum remember remember the end of December when it was back down at this Evaluation down here at around 0.02 After Bitcoin USD went up and we said Look guys in q1 ethereum is likely going To take off and it did but there’s a Time I think where you get that Seasonality to favor to favor ethereum In a time when it doesn’t And I do think the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is very much on borrowed time At this point and is likely going to Continue to deteriorate to the downside Now we’re going into a pretty eventful Week as I said with the Shanghai hard Fork so that doesn’t mean that you can’t See some short-term renewed strength Oftentimes when we get this renewed Strength a lot of people sort of Discredit the idea but when you go back And look at things everything’s just Been a lower high right it’s just been One even even the move in September but Still technically a lower high as Compared to December 2021 and normally The ethereum Bitcoin valuation Peaks Approximately you know one month or so Or maybe a few months you know between a Few months or so after Bitcoin USD does Right I mean look at look at it over Here it peaked one month after Bitcoin Us seated Bitcoin USD peaked in um

November you see ethereum Bitcoin Peaking here in December of 2021 Um and then over here ethereum Bitcoin Peaked actually in in summer at 2017 but Sort of the secondary lower high was in January one month after Bitcoin USD Peaked so Really since ethereum Bitcoin peaked It’s just been one lower high after Another and and I think it’s An Inconvenient Truth for a lot of people To accept especially when you consider That it’s also a lower high compared to January 2018 and a lower high compared To June of 2017. it’s just been one Lower high after another now with that Said we have to play Devil’s Advocate And note that because I’m sure a lot of People in the comment section are going To note it anyways is that yeah it’s Been putting in lower Highs but guess What it’s also been putting in higher Lows and that I think is sort of the big Question mark around ethereum and I Think it’s you know it’s worthwhile to Have an open mind I do think my view at This point is that it likely will not Flip Bitcoin but I think it that it Still is a question mark Um because we still are technically Seeing higher lows okay we’re seeing Lower highs We’re also seeing higher lows so if You’re a bull there’s evidence to

Support your thesis if you’re a bear There’s evidence to support your thesis Now I want to be clear I’m not long-term Bearish on ethereum I do think it is a It’s a it’s a valid asset but I will say That in the short to medium term I still Remain bearish on it and you know these Short-term pumps that we get Are not going to change my view right I Mean you know at least at least show a Higher high for a change and then we can Talk but I mean it’s just been one lower High after another so I I do think That’s An Inconvenient Truth that a lot Of people don’t want to accept is that Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation really Hasn’t made any progress since 2017. Okay it’s just been a lower high after a Lower high so the one the one thing to Think about and I think about this a lot Is is the ethereum Bitcoin valuation on Some type of trajectory like a Logarithmic regression curve if you’re Not familiar with these curves we sort Of have this kind of stuff for um you Know for Bitcoin USD if we were to Switch this out sort of like a weekly Time frame And pull up the logarithmic regression Bands that we followed before you see This idea of diminishing returns over The macro scale now is ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation showing something Similar where it just had more explosive

Growth early on but It ultimately sort Of settles back into this regression Band as a function of time and you know That’s sort of what’s I think up in the Air what I’m looking for on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation to get interested Um in it is is 0.03.04 It’s still not there all right that’s What I’m I’m interested in I think that .03.04 range is is uh is an interesting Spot because it’s at least I think the First line of of real support that the Ethereum Bulls could try to hold Because if they can’t hold that Then you hope it’s an oscillator right You might say well what evidence is There of an oscillator well you could Make the case that it’s just in sort of These stages of finding its range right So like this is the initial Capitalization and then it just sort of Stays in this range right there is a Case to be made that it could be an Oscillator there’s also a case to be Made that it’s putting in Higher lows okay so if you think about That I don’t really think we’re going to Have reconciliation on this until 2026 Is my guess you might say well why 2026 Well you know if you look at things like The Bitcoin dominance and you Extrapolate them out sort of the lower Highs on the Bitcoin dominance excluding Stable coins but also the higher lows

Those converge in 2026. I think we’ll show that later but So you know I think there’s so so There’s two ways to look at this right Is ethereum’s Bitcoin evaluation putting In higher lows or is it going to just Sort of turn into an oscillator where It’s range bound between 0.02 and and 0.07.08 this is something that we have To consider and again if if you’re in The camp that it just it’s not Worthwhile to think about because you Know you know in your heart that it’s Going to go higher I would remind you That you know despite the fact that Everyone was so bullish on ethereum Bitcoin right here going into the merge And we’re calling for the flipping and Whatnot what happened right it was just It was just a local high and ever since Then it’s just putting putting in lower Highs that’s all that’s happened nothing More nothing less So just consider that Um when you know as we as we continue to Watch the ethereum Bitcoin valuation Unfold I do think a more worthwhile way To visualize the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is not to look at the price Ratio but look at the market cap ratio Because that actually accounts for the Supply uh and if you’re interested in Actually the flipping and you want to Look at this instead and you can see

Right that it’s about 0.41 now this data Here only goes back to July 2017 but we Know the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has Been around Um you know really since 2015 when Ethereum USD was introduced so you can Imagine though that since ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation was all the way down Here Um you know if you were to sort of Extrapolate this out it would probably Look something like this right where you Know it it oscillated between sort of The low part and the high part and then The low part and the high part and we Know that crypto is very cyclical and I I would still argue that we’re still Likely to see it come back down this way Is is my best guess okay now I know the Bulls are are yeah the Bulls on this are Just going to say well it’s been a lot Of time up here doesn’t that mean it’s Different Um I don’t really I mean you know if you Look back over here the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation stated some fairly elevated Levels for over a year I know it’s it’s Lasted longer this time Um but it’s not that it’s not Necessarily that dissimilar from what We’ve previously seen So I would say it’s uh still within the Realm of possibility that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation uh could could

Eventually you know could could break Down now in terms of when right you know There is some seasonality to ethereum And and we’ve talked about this a lot You should know when does ethereum tend To show its strength it’s usually q1 Sometimes it can go through Q2 that’s Usually when it shows sustained and Renewed strength if you’re not familiar With what I’m talking about if you go Take a look at ethereum of the ethereum Bitcoin moves when did this move when Was this move it was in q1 and Q2 When was this move it was in q1 When was when was um this move right Here it started in December and then it Wrapped up in in January February right So mostly q1 Um you have this move right here that Was also q1 This move right here first quarter of The year This move right here first and second Quarter of the year There’s seasonality to it right so when Have the major drawdowns occurred or When did the one occur last year started In May When did this one occur started in May When did this one start Ed in May and June What about this one over here You could argue it started in March and Then it put in a lower high in May and

Then I put in a lower high in October And then it bled in Q4 Even this one right here you saw it it Get up here in in sort of the early Stages but as you got into the first Half of the year but as you got into the Third and fourth quarter it bled back Down so what do we know about the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation on average it Tends to be stronger in q1 sometimes That that strength can stay until Q2 but Oftentimes it fades in Q2 and and Potentially Q3 and Q4 this is what we’ve Seen play out time and time again and Let’s look at the data right why don’t We look at monthly candles But rather than go through Systematically let’s just look at a Table so this shows you the ethereum Bitcoin monthly candles and down here it Shows you the average look at this the First five months of the year on average Have been green the last seven months of The year on average have been red you Might say well I thought it sir I Thought the ethereum Bitcoin violation Started to go down in May yeah it Usually does it often has doesn’t mean That make can’t still be green if it Pumped in the first part of May right But you can see that in general the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation You know as you get into June July August and and through the rest of the

Year tends to not do that great on Average now Q4 it’s usually not doing That great Because that’s sort of more seasonal for Bitcoin if you think back to when Bitcoin has had parabolic rallies Q4 of 2013 Q4 of 2017 Q4 of 2021 right Even 2020 Q4 Bitcoin was going parabolic So Bitcoin USD seasonality is favored in Q4 Ethereum seasonality is favored in q1 as You get into sort of the dog days of Summer the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation Can see a fairly rapid sell-off and That’s actually what happened last year We literally made a video like on this Day like right there calling for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation to drop and a Dip and I thought that was it I mean I Did right I mean the receipts are there I thought that was it I thought it was Done for the cycle Um and you know I thought that Sort of this trend line was going to be Broken Now what happened The merge sort of brought it back up Arguably now there’s some some level of Rationalization I think but that’s what Happened and and you know even though it Did that it still put in a lower High Um but it came back up which I was not Expecting I I was expecting this move Down I was not expecting this move back

Up once it became clear that it was Going to Rally into the merge that’s When we called for sort of the one-two Punch on the secondary distribution Phase and ever since then it’s been Following more or less the blueprint of Bitcoin usd’s distribution phase where It can continue to just sort of put in Lower highs also you can see that this Trend line that once held as support That we were watching back in in 2019 And 2020 we’ve now broken below it and It’s not just a fake out like this one We’re putting weekly closes down here I Think that looks pretty bearish on the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation again Um we can sometimes see ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation bleed for a little bit But oftentimes that windfall might not Actually occur until closer to the Summer time where it really starts to Move down somewhat quickly right I mean Even here is sort of Finally started to move down in May June July August that’s I mean it’s a very Seasonal thing and so I and again I mean You know when we look back on this Technically this move down started in I Mean it rallied into September but it’s Just been putting in lower highs so it’s Not like it even had a strong q1 this Time If in fact if you go look at monthly Returns this year q1 was red uh for the

Most part I mean January was read March Was read February was green but also November and December were red as well I Mean we’ve literally had you know November December and January we’re all Red months and March green green for for February but only about one percent or So And so far in April it’s up but again so What right I mean it rallied into the Merge as well and look what happened Look what happened after you know October was green after it had a pretty Big sell-off after the merge but then What happened right it was just the next Several months were just red so you Could see something like that play out Again where it sees some type of Sell-off maybe some type of of Bounce And then a further move to the downside Going back to bitcoin USD one of the Things you’ll remember is that after After this um you know this distribution Summer lull distribution is sort of put In a higher low but then it ultimately Took it out and and went further down I Think that’s likely what’s going to Happen with ethereum Bitcoin right you Sort of see this distribution the summer Lull secondary distribution perhaps It’ll eventually come back down into This range rally back up and then roll Over very similar thing actually Happened last cycle as well where it it

Eventually you know it had this move Here right it eventually Revisited it it It had a sort of a bounce back up and Then eventually it finally formed its Bottom on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation Which did not occur until September of 2019 and then more or less a slightly Higher low in January of 2020 if you Were to fast forward that to this cycle That would correspond to you know a low On the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation not For you know another six months or so Um If uh if history is is any indication so I think you’re likely going to see it Eventually come back down to these range Lows maybe see some type of a balance Before ultimately selling off into you Know hopefully what will actually be the Bottom for the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation as we sort of prepare for Another another move going into say 2024 And 2025. I do think that these topics are Difficult to discuss because I know a Lot of people are very convinced one way Or another what’s going to happen I’m Very convinced the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is going to go down some People are convinced that it’s going to Go up Um but in reality neither the Bulls nor The Bears have been right is the truth Okay I mean we can argue all we want

About about it but if you’re a bull I Think you have to concede that there has Not been a new high since December of 2021 and if you’re a bear I think you Have to concede that you know I mean Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation has been Holding in this range for a long time so Really no one’s really been right right It’s just been Kind of oscillating around this sort of This Central Point and so I think I Think there’s a case to be made that That neither the Bulls nor the Bears Have been right but seasonality I think We are getting we are getting closer to The phase where seasonality uh does not Favor ethereum as you get in sort of the Latter half of the year and you might Say well some of this data is skewed by Some of the early years and we can we Can clean that up a little bit might say Be taking it only from say 2016 or maybe Even say from 2017. now you take it from 2017 you’ll still see that you know it’s Sort of green for the first five months On average and then it really starts to Turn red later on Um and there’s a couple I mean these are Green here but only about one or two Percent with very large standard deviate A very large standard deviation there so Uh just something something to consider And then the last thing I’ll mention is The fundamental stuff so yes we have the

Shanghai hard Fork coming up of course There’s some hype around it uh there’s Also this reality of a lot of a lot of Ethos becoming unlocked and I know There’s a lot of people going back and Forth on if this is a bullish thing or a Bearish thing the bullish case is that Well once it’s unlocked then You know people who have wanted to stake Already might finally stake their Eve Because now they know they can unlock it Whenever now they can know they can Withdraw it when they want to the Bears Case is that you have all these people That bought ethereum over the last you Know however long how how many years has Been that have locked it up and and and What right I mean it’s been locked up For a long time and now they finally Have the opportunity to sell it Right after big right after ethereum is 100 off its low and potentially we’re Knocking on the door of a recession and Is not really favoring the ethereum Seasonality as well I think you can make The case that there’s also a bearish Bias behind it as well now I mean again Like if if the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation goes down Of course people are going to blame it On on the Shanghai hard Fork right I Mean that’s going to be the narrative Right I mean what else are you gonna say Right you unlock all this eth uh right

After ethereum rallied on up and what do You expect right I mean I know a lot of People here probably are under the Assumption that no one’s going to sell But another way to look at it is that The amount of selling pressure after it Is going to be more than the selling Pressure before more than likely because You finally have people that can sell That couldn’t sell before Um So I think that’s a an important part of Course there’s always the other the Other case to make too is that well Finally people can withdraw so that Means more people would stake the Problem is I don’t really necessarily Think it brings in any new money I don’t I mean just because you get this this Shift I don’t necessarily think that Brings in any new money into the space It just might make it so that people who Already who already have eth are more Willing to to stake it that doesn’t mean That they’re going to go out and buy uh You know a ton more to support the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation going higher From where it from where it currently is So again you know I think it’s An Inconvenient Truth that ethereum Bitcoin Has been putting in lower highs the Counterpoint is that it’s also been Putting in higher lows stay tuned until 2026 when we potentially get some type

Of resolution I’m looking for some type Of move like this where it comes back I Mean if I you know if we were to sort of Map this out Um So I don’t know how high it’s going to Go here but let’s just do it something Like this And That’s sort of what I would guess and Then hopefully you know hopefully it can Hold in in this region here Um would be it would be sort of the idea Because it can’t hold here then you know Then then .02 is it makes it an Oscillator so that’ll be the area to Watch likely later on this year uh but I Mean still we still likely have a long Way to go before we’re going to realize You know the ultimate Direction on this Thing anyways if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe give the Video a thumbs up we do have the sale on Into the crypto versus premium again at Into the I’ll see you Guys next time bye