Breaking news: the market is saved. What happened here? What did federal chairman, Jerome Powell just say to send the markets skyrocketing up? All I ask is that you give me a beautiful smile click that like button and let’s stand straight into it, so we’re seeing that the federal chairman, uh Jerome Powell, signals that there’s going to be a half a percent rate hike in December, citing need to moderate Pace so meaning that now the probability of a quarter of a percent hike is currently 73.5 and 26 per point five percent.
They will see uh between half and three quarters of a percent rate hike for interstates in the United States. Currently we’re at four percent interest rate, and the next meeting is December 14th. So in one week and six days, we’re gon na know how much of a hike we’re going to see. The federal chairman is not saying that he’s going to stop. The hiking is just saying that there’s going to be a little bit of a Slowdown and the markets are loving it right.
If we refresh here this, the crypto Market, you can see the stock market has jped.
I was just looking at Apple. That’S up big Bitcoin over 17 000 ethere up six, almost six percent Shiba Inu for some reason, hasn’t really participated in the the rally here. Um. I I don’t know why.
Uh it’s it’s kind of weird. It’S kind of strange that Shiba, you know, hasn’t participated. It could be that this is more of an not an algo thing and more of a retail investor, uh thing and maybe Shiba Inu, because it had a little bit of a run-up uh with the Elon Musk news uh. So maybe that’s why we’re seeing a little bit of stabilization and it’s not running up like Bitcoin and ethere, had a little bit more of a drop there. So maybe that’s the reason.
We’Re seeing uh S! P 500 up almost two percent here uh. Since the the announcement came up and if you look you can see once then he started talking it. Uh went up a significant right for the S P 500 to go up two percent uh in the middle of the day. That’S that’s a big move.
Usually it’s only because of news, and you can see here the the vix. The volatility indicator is uh. Going down minus 5.66, so what did Powell have to say right? Uh, we can see here before we get to that.
We also had it. Black Friday was huge online sales, Top 9 billion in new record. Also, Cyber Monday was huge, so we’re seeing that people are spending what I thought that we might see a situation where people you know what inflation is High we’re seeing uh, also interest rates high, so I have more expenses. I thought people would be saving their money, but no people are spending money on record uh Sales Online. Also, on you know, at stores the people want to get back.
People want to, participate in Black Friday
I’m guessing, I don’t know, and we can see here that it’s up 3.5 percent creeping back to the 1 trillion uh market cap level for cryptocurrency , and so that’s interesting, and we also had some news about uh Crypto exchange Kraken, it’s laying off 1100 employees. I don’t know if this is crypto related or just jobs related. We know that you know many technology companies are cutting after there was huge, huge uh hiring processes in 2021. So this don’t know if this has to do with crypto and FTX uh more of uh.
You know just over over uh hiring in 2021. That could be the issue here. So basically uh Powell had this to say he says: inflation remains far too high. You know, let me zoom in for a second: can we zoom in on Twitter? Here we go.
Inflation remains far whoops a little bit too much. Inflation remains far too high. Without price stability. The economy does not work for anyone. It will take substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining.
The truth is that the path ahead for inflation remains highly uncertain, so you remember about a year ago. He says no, there’s not going to be any inflation. It’S going to be transitory and now he’s like. You know what we don’t know, how long it’s gon na stay, but the markets love the fact that he said that they’re going to start reducing it right. So that’s the the real thing here right.
We need to raise interest rates to levels, to bring inflation down to two percent, the ultimate levels of rates we will need to be higher than expected at the September meeting. So at the September meeting they thought that they would need to raise to a certain amount right they didn’t. This is not talking about the the rate of the raise, meaning that we there they might uh instead of doing uh half a percent for six months. They’Ll do do a quarter of a percent for a year and then the end game here will be higher right on the end game before they start reducing the interest rates. Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past year, we have not seen clear progress on slowing inflation, which to me says right that what they’re doing is not working so maybe raising interest rates is not the way right when you raise interest rates.
You’Re doing this to slow down the economy,
to slow down uh the production right, because if things become more expensive, less uh, so yeah the inflation becomes uh low should become lower, because when you raise interest rates, people have less money to buy things right. So the manufacturers they sell less and then they’re like okay, let’s bring down prices, because if we don’t bring down prices, we won’t sell anything. And then it’s supposed to bring down prices help inflation. But this is it’s not helping. It’S just making uh things worse right, and so maybe what they’re doing is not great right, we’re already understanding that that the FED really doesn’t know what they’re doing at the end of the day.
But the markets you know, React to what he has to say. Overall participation remains well below pre-pandemic Trends. The participation Gap is mostly due to excess retirements right. People are retiring. Early retirees do not appear to be returning to the labor force for wage growth to be sustainable.
It needs to be consistent with two percent inflation Housing Services. Inflation will probably continue to rise into next year. This type, despite some promising developments, we have long way to go. Restoring price stability, the full effects of a rate increase have to yet to be felt right and that’s what I just said we’re not seeing that it’s working right, ! You know we saw a last CPI data that there was a little bit of a drop right.
It was a little bit higher than sorry lower than expected right, and so then the markets ran , but that could just be because oil went down and because the prices of houses are a year and a half uh lagging. So this could be some stem things. Like that and that that affected it, the time for rate moderation, could be as soon as this December meeting. So it’s saying, okay, this meeting this is what send the markets up right. The time for rate moderation could come as soon as the December meeting right.
He’S not telling us straight out that that’s gonna happen
but that’s something right that is saying. Okay, we already you know, Hey, listen December, I’m not making any promises, but we’re probably going to start with rate moderation. That means, instead of three quarters of a percent, we’ll see either half a percent or uh 0.25, but that all depends on the CPI nbers if the CPI nber suddenly are too high, maybe they’ll flip on that history cautions against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.
It is likely to restoring price stability, require holding policy at restricted level for some times. Cutting rate is something we don’t we want to do soon. A cutting rate is not something we want to do soon, so they don’t want to start. You know doing it uh too aggressively to the other side and then have bad uh effect. Palestine and more dovish today than he has in a while.
So hawkish is bad right and dovish is good. So that’s why so. This is sounding more positive uh. This uh thank you to Benjamin Cohen uh for giving us this uh nice uh play by play here. I couldn’t watch the the live uh Speech, as it’s bedtime right here in Israel, so I had to put the kids to sleep, so I missed the speech so big thanks to Benjamin uh, to giving us this play-by-play.
It will be very interesting to see what will happen here with the crypto market, with the stock markets uh now, with this dovish uh info, that we’ve got from the Federal Reserve. How high will this push we’re seeing the stock market go up, big and remember uh crypto market right? We had the CPI data, but FTX came right at the the time of the good CPI data and the crypto Market didn’t have the the run right and so we’re seeing now stock market moving uh positively right, uh still inside the channel. If you watch the AMC – videos , we talk a lot about this. If, if you want to listen to stock analysis in the AMC videos, we talk a lot about the stock market, not just about AMC, and then you can see here right that the stock market is inside this upward Channel and we’re seeing still inside this triangle.
But where’s the upward triangle
it’s not showing it uh the there’s, an upward channel here that uh the stock market is inside. Maybe it will show on the uh spy, no technical, difficulty time technical difficulty time. I don’t know why. Now it’s not showing we couldn’t draw it again, uh, but basically there’s this nice channel that was created here and and the stock market is running in this upward Trend uh to the 4200 level. If we can break out of this uh triangle that you can see here, that will be a very, very positive indication for the stock market.
So it will be very interesting to see how this plays out, how the market finishes here today, uh getting over 4 000. After it was pulled down in the past few days under four thousand – I don’t know it’s all messed up here. Ah, here Otto uh – and you can see it hit 4 000 a few days ago, and then it holds back uh all the way down, and now it popped back up to the 4000 level. Hopefully, the stock market can hold over four thousand for a few days. That will give us a bullish signal here, uh on the four hour chart and you can see on the daily chart, we’re still pretty high here up on the stochastic also false.
So it’s something to watch and monitor. What do you think is going to happen in the next few days for the stock market here we’re on Wednesdays? We have Thursday Friday, of course, and also crypto trades. 24. 7.
So what will happen with that guys?