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Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse I figured we would go live Um let me see if I can find the link to The Stream There it is so let me grab that Okay Um so I figured we’d go live we are Seeing Bitcoin break above 30k but we’re also Seeing the dominance go with it so we Talked about this a lot uh over the last Forever right Um the general idea of a Bitcoin only Pump to get the dominance above the Range highs now what were the range Highs we are very close And it’s an important point to consider Because if it breaks above Which I think it will right I think it Will if the dominance breaks above the Range Then what it means or at least what I Think it means is that upon the Correction by Bitcoin USD the altcoin Market should absolutely get decimated Is the idea but it needs to get above it Needs to get to 49 now technically Speaking it’s not actually 49 if you Look at this this range here we we so we Already took out this one This one was at 48.45 we’re above that right so that one Is taken care of
We’re above this one which was at 47.72 so that one’s taken care of as Well We have not taken care of this one which Is at 48.92 so The point Or as we’ve said is that we need to Break Above This range so the Bitcoin Can remind the altcoins who is King and And the way that works is essentially The Bitcoin rallies until or Theoretically it gets the dominance Above the prior Range High so that when Bitcoin USD corrects the altcoin market Has nowhere to hide okay Now let me show you something Interesting a good way to visualize this All right so so take a look at Bitcoinusd think about it like this We talked we talked about Bitcoin only Rallies a long time right like the idea That the Bitcoin only rally gets the Dominance higher and the idea is that no Matter the direction of Bitcoin USD the Dominant should go higher and so if you Subscribe to that theory then there’s Just no reason to have all coins right At this stage of the cycle it Essentially means that the All Season That people are waiting for isn’t going To occur is what it means uh instead What likely happen is is Bitcoin Whenever it corrects the altcoin market
Just immediately corrects with it and Does not go on a parabolic rally like a Lot of people would hope Now let me show you some evidence for That idea Bitcoin USD Has not only broken out of this Downtrend line But it’s also taken out The November High you might say The November High why are we talking About the November High you know who Cares about that who cares about 21k why Is that important well I’m glad you Asked If you were to go take a look At total three Which is the altcoin market right this Is the altcoin market Even though Bitcoin USD Has been going on essentially a Bitcoin Only rally What happened to Total three what Happened to all the altcoins that people Say are going to get gain ground on Bitcoin what happened to them well Collectively now I’m not talking about Whatever 10 million market cap coin that Your friend printed last weekend I’m Talking about the majority the the the Collective altcoin Market Bitcoin USD Broke above the November High it also Brokens downtrend line Total three could not even be bothered
At this point to get above it’s October November high right November High Bitcoin broke the November High you know Back in January What’s total three doing Right So what’s happened Bitcoin is sucking in liquidity from the Altcoin market that’s what’s happening I Mean we can spin up whatever narrative We want but that’s what I think is Happening right I think Bitcoin is Sucking in liquidity from the altcoin Market and all you have to do is go look Any basically at any day go look at all Bitcoin Pairs and you can see they just Bleed right they they bleed constantly Fairly consistently ethereum Bitcoin Ada Bitcoin dot Bitcoin link and the list Just goes on and on right so the altcoin Market continues to bleed now you must Ask yourself right what’s the point of Buying alts if they just bleed against Bitcoin right what’s the point you know I don’t know you have to answer that Question I don’t think there is a point I I you know and I I this is what I said Back in q1 of 2022 I said also too risky Why are they too risky even if they even If they bounce they’re still likely Bleeding against Bitcoin you know and You’ve seen that play out for what 13 14 Months now and it’s likely going to play Out for another three to six months so
Look at this total three Not not even bothered to break above its November High Couldn’t do it at least not yet I mean Maybe it will but you can see the Relative weakness in the altcoin market Now the The altcoin Optimist might say Well that just means it’s going to break Out but I would I would put forth the idea that Liquidity for the altcoin market is is Drying up and and it’s basically just Bleeding back to bitcoin and the altcoin Market is helping to support this rally Just like it did in the past now let’s Go take a very close look here so Bitcoin’s above 30k The dominance 48.64 what’s the magic number I’ve said 49 a lot really it’s it’s 48.93 if you Take the high 48.93 if we get to 48.93 Which is point three percent away I think as we as we outlined in that Breaking alts video that no one got the Reference to I think the altcoin I I think the Altcoin market is broken off their Office Bitcoin support level you know You go take a look at some of these all Coins right go take a look at Avalanche Or Ada or Solana or ethereum you know a Lot of them are are just simply getting Broken down on their Bitcoin pairs right And then they retested it and then
Failed the to fail the retest like look At avacs Bitcoin right it once was Holding support then it fell below back Test rejection down Ada Bitcoin the same Thing Solana Bitcoin porcelona Bitcoin Doesn’t even have really anything to Back test it’s just been bleeding for Basically the last you know two years or So uh with with very little very little Supports held along the way I mean just Low up new low right I mean it just does it just keeps doing The same thing over and over and over Again so again you look at the altcoin Market The liquidity is going back to bitcoin Bitcoins above 30k The dominance is approaching the range Highs and the danger To assume that all season will follow Would be That what happens if Bitcoin dominance breaks Above This Because if it does and and it corrects Then you have you know then you have This issue potentially where the awkward Liquidities dried up and and people have Got their bags packed ready to go to the Moon uh but you know the altcoin market Might have other plans so this is why We’ve said the altcoin market you know Is is just too risky in my opinion During this phase Bitcoin is a much Safer place so if you’re you know
Whatever whatever exposure to crypto you Have I I think not Financial advice Right but I think it should be limited To bitcoin Um mainly because you know this Dominance Trend which and I you know I’ve I’ve listened to people on on Twitter and on YouTube basically call For the dominance to break down forever Now And I’ve thought I’ve said consistently It’s not going to and it’s just going to Keep breaking up to the upside despite The disbelief that will follow with it Right and and you know I think a lot of People just assume are going to stay at These in these ranges forever just Because that’s all they’ve ever known But as quickly as we fell off this Cliff We can climb back up it okay so what’s The number to watch 49 more specifically 48.93 we get above that when the Correction comes for Bitcoin USD The altcoin market should theoretically Get decimated not only on its Bitcoin Not only on their Bitcoin pairs but also On their USD pairs all right That’s that’s what I think is and I’ve We’ve talked about this for a long time Um and we’ll see if it if it finally Plays out Um The dollar is is taking a bit of a hit Today it is actually up slightly the
Last couple of days 102.367 but it’s Still relatively low if it ends up being Some type of a double bottom or if it Becomes a slightly lower low like we saw Back over here and I mean you can see Back over here it was it was a double Bottom but this was the rejection here So we probably should more so compare it To right here or you can look at it over Here I mean if it is a lower low or a Double bottom then um and the dollar Then starts to show renewed strength as We get in to say further on in Q2 and Q3 Then that that’s more you know sort of More fuel for the the dominance of Bitcoin to go higher because you know I Mean if if if the economy deteriorates In the latter half of the year which We’ve talked about right the second half Of the year is is when the economy could Really start to deteriorate if that Happens then I I don’t think all coins Will provide you any Refuge Um That’s my opinion you can feel free to Disagree with it if you want to I know a Lot of people do but so far I think that We can say That Since the highs right over the last Several you know since we talked about How you navigate how you navigate these Markets all coins are too risky Congratulations if you’ve made money on
The altcoin bounces I’m not trying to Take anything away from you but You know you look at total three and you See how much if you if you look to see How much total three the altcoin market Dropped last cycle 92 percent 92. So far it’s only dropped 74 percent now I’m a Believer in diminishing Diminishing returns as diminishing Losses but you know the the jump from 92 To 74 seems a bit too much to me so I Still think that the altcoin market has Has further down to go and I think that Um In order to see that come to fruition we Need to see the dominance get above 49 And hold okay now We are coming up close look at this move Over here by the dominance right I mean The where what do you compare it to if You don’t if you if you don’t compare it To these moves over here if you compare It to the prior cycle look at these Moves right it the dominance move Started at the same the same level right I mean this same level same exact level 39 is where it started right here So 39 percent Is when the is when the rally started This includes Stables by the way this One started here at 39 now look at this Look at overlaying Bitcoin USD onto this
Chart So we’ll overlay it And we’ll switch this over Sorry I clicked on the wrong thing Um let me switch this over To a logarithmic scale And Zoom in Zoom into this move by the dominance you See the dominance was going higher Did it go higher because Bitcoin USD was Pumping or did it go higher because Bitcoin USD was dumping The answer is yes okay that’s the answer The answer is yes it did both The first half of the rally By Bitcoin dominance that started from 39 and went all the way to 62 percent The first half of this rally was Essentially when you know Bitcoin USD Was consolidating and ultimately Rallying on up And look at look at where the dominance Finally broke the prior Range High so in The last in the last cycle the prior Range High was around 50 just below 51 Percent Look at this Bitcoinusd pumped enough to get the Dominance right above that level right At 51 percent Right right above 51 now had you assumed Back then that all season was going to Follow just because the dominance was
Back at the range high or slightly above It you would have been very disappointed Right Very disappointed And what happened the blue line right so Bitcoin USD corrected back down And the dominance continued to go higher Why did it go higher because Bitcoin was Able the dominance was able to take out This high right here which was just Below 51 percent and it took the the Rally by Bitcoin persisted until The dominance the Range High was taken Out once it was taken out it was lights Out for all coins for the next six Months lights out they bled against Bitcoin for the next three months then They bled out against the US dollar for Three months after that and and the rest Is history and if you say you know if You don’t remember the altcoin market Even bled in 2019 and 2020 if you look At if you look at some individual lot Coins that still some of them still win And put a new all-time highs later so Don’t tell me they can’t put in new lows Um we saw we saw plenty of all coins put In new lows in 2019 and 2020. so that’s I think what we’re looking at right now Is a very similar phase where the Dominance is rallying liquidity from the Altcoin market is going into Bitcoin Because everyone’s getting tired of all This
Um all these hacks all these rug pulls Right it’s just not ready for the world Stage and and the the safe haven right Has been back to bitcoin you might say What about stable coins I mean you tell Me right as far as I can tell a lot of Them aren’t that stable and and you Essentially have a new stable coin Getting de-pegged at least temporarily Every other weekend so I don’t really Know that serious money at least new Series money is going to sort of find Refuge in in the stable coin Market Furthermore if you don’t believe me Right don’t take it up with me take it Up with the date I go look at the usdc Market cap plus usdt plus busd market Cap And plus die and you can see we’ll Switch this over to a regular scale I’ll Switch it over to let’s just look at Monthly candles you know if stable coins Are so stable and everyone loves them Why is the market cap been bleeding Since April of 2022 you know it’s Because it’s because liquidity you know People are are withdrawing the stable Coins I mean they’re they’re taking it Back out and and they’re you know They’re they’re sort of Um cashing that back in Um So stablecoin market cap is going down Bitcoin dominance including Stables is
Going up and I told you guys you know we We track the dominance excluding Stables As well but I told you many times that The dominance including Stables should Also go up why because the stable coin Market you know should go back down uh Just regulation risk right regulatory Risk is is the issue here so what I’m Watching for is you know if you’re Curious about when bin will get Interested in the altcoin market I know Many people have have been quick to Remind me all the altcoin rallies I’ve Missed out on them over the last year And a half or so but if you’re curious When I’ll be interested in the altcoin Market it’s we need to see the dominance Break above 49 and hold we then need to See the dominance continue to go up Whenever the whenever the correction by Bitcoin USD occurs and then upon that if The dominance continues to go up Then we can talk about it right we can Talk about it Um but until then The the opportunity cost I I think is is Just too high for in general for the Altcoin market I’m not saying they can’t rally I mean If if Bitcoin USD continues to go up Again it it can it can drag the altcoin Market higher with it like we know that The altcoin market can go higher with Bitcoin USD but the point is opportunity
Cost right if Bitcoin USD is going up And and it’s outperforming essentially Every other altcoin in the top 50 What’s the point of holding the other Ones right I mean it you’re taking on More risk and you’re getting less reward And the dominance the Bitcoins going Higher some people say the dominances is Is not a useful metric I would argue That it’s probably the most important Metric or one of the most important Metrics for the cryptoverse because it Shows you what you know if the altcoin Market is capable of going into a true All season or if it’s just one of these Fake alt Seasons that you know gets you A short-term rally but is ultimately Very quickly sold off just because the Conditions don’t really allow for it in The same way that they would have in 2017 and 20 uh in 2021 And even go look at 2019 you know if you Think of a more fair comparison would be To compare this to 2019 is so what it’ll Go compare it to that and you’ll see Again that the dominance continue to go Higher even after Bitcoin USD corrected Right it didn’t last as long but it Still it still happened in the altcoin Market did not I mean look at this like Bitcoin Bitcoin USD peaked here With the dominance at what like 63 Percent the dominance kept going up to 73 even when Bitcoin USD started its
Correction so whether you want to Whether you want to compare it to 2018 Whether you want to compare it to 2019 That’s up to you the point is is I think Both 2018 and 2019 are more valid Comparisons than 2021 or 2017 or 2013. That’s my point is that they’re more Valid comparisons so the idea again is The altcoin market should continue to Bleed back to bitcoin no matter the Direction of of Bitcoin USD and speaking Of Bitcoin USD you can still see we are Sitting just above 30k let me switch This over to another exchange that might Be actually just a bit higher yeah so on On coinbase it’s currently at about 30.26 uh almost 30.3 it looks like I’m Coinbase it actually went up to thirty Thousand four fifty Seven Uh 2x by the way 2x from the bottom What was about 15 4 so 30.8 Would be that would be basically a 2X Move off the off the bottom 30.8 30.9 somewhere so we’re not we’re Not that far off from that so that’s What I’m watching you guys should know That let’s see if we can get to 49 if we Can then it’s probably going to be Lights off for the altcoin market now One thing I will say if you zoom in to To sort of some of the corrections by Bitcoin USD Um that have happened when the dominance Was in a sustained uptrend the knee-jerk
Reaction to a drop on bitcoin USD the Knee-jerk reaction has has often been The dominance briefly goes down so if You’re watching the dominance and you See it go to 49 and then you see it go To 50 and then 51 and you’re thinking All right this is great and then and Then there’s this huge drop and the Dominance goes back two percent or Something Um let’s say a back test 49 that doesn’t Mean it’s going to keep going back down It that’s sort of a knee-jerk reaction We’ve seen and if that happens it shakes The shakes the confidence of the altcoin Market and and then the altcoin market Just continues to bleed And then you should see the dominance Continue to sort of slowly push higher From there Um so you know we’ve talked about this Theory for forever you know and and I Know the dominance has has sort of been All over the place but I I will remind People once again that excluding Stables Which seems reasonable to do but Excluding Stables dominance is now at 53.47 so 53 almost 53 and a half percent Furthermore it’s been putting in higher Lows since May of 2021 so you know don’t Tell me don’t tell me all these all Coins have been holding up against Bitcoin you buy because the Bitcoin Dominance including Stables has has
Basically been range bound you look at Excluding stables and you can see has Been putting in higher lows and we’ve Talked about how it’s building out a Massive base down here to ultimately go A lot higher a lot of people don’t want To hear it because they’re they married Their altcoin two years ago but I’m Telling you the dominance of Bitcoin is Is a great way to navigate crypto Been trying to understand what is the Likely direction of the altcoin market With respect to bitcoin and and you know Going over to ethereum and I I want to Address this again because I I’ve Addressed it on Twitter Ad nauseam uh For for I don’t know how long now but Everyone likes to say well ethereum is Fundamentally different than it was you Know a year ago right we have the merge We have all this other stuff and I would I would simply retort once again that The market has more or less refuted that Claim you know you can’t say that it you Know ethereum won’t bleed against Bitcoin because of the merge and then You just have one lower high after Another ever since September and still September was a lower high when compared To November of 2021 and let’s not even Talk about how that was a lower high Compared to December 2017 and how that Was a lower high compared to the summer Of 2017. again yes it there’s also
Higher lows in here as well and I’m Prepared to to sort of ride that higher Low narrative but I’m not going to ride That higher low narrative when we’re Still chilling at 0.0637 when I think This is just a massive distribution Phase up here on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation you know you get us back down Here then we can talk about the higher Lows right we can talk about the higher Lows what’s the point about talking About higher lows when We’re still at sort of these range highs Where it’s been putting in these lower Highs Um so yes I get the idea that people Think that ethereum is going to Outperform bitcoin but you know it’s not Actually doing so and you know I know Some people will cherry pick lows and Say well it’s outperforming it from this Point you know I would simply say this Okay if ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin how come it hasn’t put in a new A new high since the summer of 2017. Okay if it’s constantly outperforming Bitcoin then you have to be able to Explain why it can’t put in new highs Against Bitcoin yes if you cherry pick The 2018 bottom or if you cherry pick The 2020 bottom it outperformed and also You will know I was a huge Bull on Ethereum back then we you know we called It the accumulation phase of a lifetime
The first video on my channel is about Ethereum Bitcoin being undervalued right So you know yes I understand that Ethereum can outperform on bitcoin at Certain times right at certain times but I don’t really think now is one of those Times I I think that you know if you Cherry pick the lows when ethereum’s Down like 95 or something well sure a Lot of things outperform Bitcoin if you Cherry pick the lows but here’s another Way to look at it Um Sort of a longer term view go look at Bitcoin compared to its 2017 high right Where is Bitcoin compared to its 2017 High you cherry pick the high don’t try To pick the lows try pick the high as Well let’s say you fomo in at the top Which most people did most people fomo In at the top they don’t fomo in at the Bottom Bitcoin from the 2017 high is up 52 percent okay 52. ethereum From its high in 2017 right here 2018 Is up 23 percent okay so it’s not fair To say that ethereum constantly up forms Bitcoin because again if it did Then why hasn’t it put in a new high on His Bitcoin pair in six years six years It does not put in a new high so that is Is is my retort to the uh you know to Those people and when If ethereum Bitcoin if the ethereum Bitcoin violation comes back in
And comes back to some lower levels then I’ll be the first to say hey I think It’s now going to outperform bitcoin for A while right but what’s the point of Saying that if it’s likely just going to You know just continue to put in lower Highs here in the short term which again I I think and again you know everyone on Crypto Twitter is going to tell you About the flipping right and all this Stuff right they’re gonna that’s what They’re gonna say that’s a cool thing to Say uh but again you know have them Address the lower highs have them Address that and uh and and how ethereum Is unable to really push higher on its Bitcoin pair Hasn’t done it it just simply hasn’t Done it now again you should probably Compare the market cap rather than the Price but even if you do that even if You compare the market cap Right even if you compare the market cap Still didn’t take out the highs from 2018 2017. it doesn’t have all the data Going back in 2017 because you can see It’s cut off right here but it still Didn’t take out these highs so I think you have to address that and and You know if you if you were to have if You were to have the market cap data Over here all the way to say 2015 it Probably looks something like that so You know could it not just be an
Oscillator Where when it’s up here everyone thinks That ethereum’s out performing Bitcoin When it’s down here everyone thinks Bitcoin’s out performing youth when it’s Up here everyone thinks the theorem is Out for me Bitcoin I mean you know it Just sort of Ebbs and flows right crypto Versus the cryptoverse is very cyclical Right very very cyclical and we’ve seen This happen many many times where you Know everyone wants to jump on the train Because they they’ve only ever seen Something outperform but then when you Take a more sobering glance at the Returns of ethereum compared to bitcoin You know you know it’s not you you can Easily find time frames where Bitcoin is Outperformed ethereum and and mainly Ethereum out forms Bitcoin if you if you More so cherry pick local lows after After bear markets and why shouldn’t you I mean you know if you can get in at Those at those phases and that can be That can be quite useful Um I also wanted to address one more Thing I mean I do feel compelled to to Defend Bitcoin here and I make no Apologies for it everyone’s been talking About the dominance going lower for a Long time and I’ve been adamant that It’s going to go higher but one of the Most common retorts to to sort of Bitcoin and ethereum
Is that well ethereum didn’t put in a New low in uh in in November right That’s the commentator well I’d say well Not yet but I would say another retort Is Bitcoin even with its new low was Still only 77 down right even with the New low 77 down which we called for this Low right I mean tons of people were Calling for you know June to be the Bottom right we said no it’ll probably It’ll probably crash in November or December and it did but one thing to Consider here is that this is a a new Low for Bitcoin that was 77 down from The all-time high so you might say well Bitcoin put a new low but ethereum Didn’t and then you go take a look at Ethereum and you’re like yeah it did not Put in any low But this higher low was 78 down this low Over here was 82 percent down Okay so yes it didn’t put in a new low At least not yet But guess what right Bitcoin still did Not drop as much as ethereum did Right Let’s look at one other thing We talked about this not too long ago Um but I want to talk about it again and That is the year-to-date performance Look at the recovery years for Bitcoin Look at let’s look at 2019 right look at 2019. massive rally faded in the second Half of the year what have we said 2015
2019 recovery years wreck the Bulls for Half the year wrecked the Bears for half The year you know it could be it could Be six months and six months it could be Three three three three whatever right It’s just the point is is both sides Need to get wrecked this year 2019 you Wrecked the Bears first and you wrecked The Bulls but look I mean Bitcoin Finished this year up strong 2020 we saw A massive capitulation where we went Back down to the range lows uh in a Recession which again is a risk this Time as well we’ve talked about that but Look at this in 2019 Bitcoin finished The year up Well off it’s low often sorry well off Its yearly open despite the fact that Bitcoin finished its year off well above The yearly open ethereum did not in 2019 It did not it was below its yearly open By the end of the year The weakness that comes from the altcoin Market during the sort of the recovery Year by Bitcoin is very obvious when When Bitcoin comes back in when it comes Back down the altcoin market just just Profusely bleeds back to bitcoin as as People really start to wonder you know What if my altcoin doesn’t survive you Know until the you know what if it Doesn’t go put in new all-time highs What if you know what if there’s a new Shiny object next cycle that people care
About what if this is just a relic Altcoin that no one’s going to care About in two years like BBQ coin to 2013 Or made safe coin in 2013 or World coin From 2013 Um They’re everywhere okay and look at 2017 There’s so many coins that that put in New new highs no one cares about them Anymore unless people don’t even know What their names are anymore so This is the point right is is that by The way if you compare this 2019 eth to 2023 eth Um you can see right here it’s what 1.1.6 or so Actually another way to look at this is To to look at it as measured from the Peak take it out to the next Peak sort Of zoom into this range uh and you if You zoom in for this range for Bitcoin You’ll kind of see where we are right See where we are look at it for eth So we’re sort of we’re getting close to That point in terms of a cyclical time Frame for ethereum Happened at 529 is so we rallied here From from December until June but it was You know this this point was 337 days After after this started and then the Second half of the year was brutal we Came back down below the yearly open and Then We’ve finally rallied into a bull market
Right and then we finally rallied into a Bull market Um but the recovery year was brutal Because first we wrecked the Bears and Then we wrecked the Bulls Right so that’s what we normally do in Recovery years So You know Ada eight is another example Right Um look at look at Ada here just look at It to the bottom Look how long it took Ada to finally hit Its low 800 over 800 days it’s currently At just below 600 days so you’re still Talking about potentially you know six Months and it the bear market for Ada Still isn’t necessarily longer than it Was last time Um Just something it was something to Consider of course but let’s go see Where Bitcoin is we’re still at 30k by The way we have a lot of important Events this week we have CPI on Wednesday uh most important CPI report Ever until the next one Um we have The the FED minutes I believe is coming Out on Wednesday from the last fomc Which might actually be more interesting To see what they had to say and then we Also have the Shanghai hard fork for Ethereum so Wednesday should be a fairly
Eventful day in the crypto verse and Risk Assets in general I imagine Whatever happens it will take a few days To digest everything but Wednesday Should be somewhat interesting to see Kind of where things are going Um one some some interesting things About some of the precious metal stuff By the way yeah and this sort of goes Back to 2019. by the way the yield curve Inverted in 2019 too right so if you Want to say this time’s different it’s Normal I mean we also had a yield curve Inversion in 2019 but when when crypto Sort of rolled over in 2019 Um gold and silver corrected back with It initially and then they continued Their rally even after Bitcoin and and The cryptivers came back down and then Crypto then took off the following year Why did crypto take off the following Year right we went back to quantitative Easing right QE It’s like the uh it’s like a drug for You know for speculators right that Sweet sweet money that sweet QE Um So I think we need to go back to QE in Order to see Bitcoin and and the crypto Versus as a whole really make a move to Sort of those range highs from the last Bull market another metric to look at is The dominance of Bitcoin and ethereum And one of the interesting things here
Is I would argue it’s leading the Bitcoin dominance itself look at this It’s already broken out It’s already broken up So it’s already taken out it’s it’s high In June of 2022 and it’s high in October 2021 and the high in August 2021 it’s as High as this has been since basically April of 2021 think about that April 21 Exactly two years ago when this move Broke down Where did it break down from 86 Dominance for Blue Chip dominance Bitcoin and eat dominance 86 it’s now at 67.93 so basically 68 this was the first Time it went to that level it also went To that level back in 2017 as well let’s Look at this on a weekly time frame Right Crypt over the crypto versus is very Cyclical and when you’re down here no One ever believes you’re going to come Back up here and when you’re up here no One thinks you’re going to come back Down and and you can see the breakout Has occurred So it’s likely you’re just going to sort Of zinc it’s you know zigzag its way on Up And then guess what after all that Happens when it’s up here You know the good news is we can tell we Can finally talk about all season you Know once you see this really reclaim
Where it where it should be and I I Think if you think about it it’s all Again it’s all very cyclical right like The cryptoverse is healing right like Nature is healing it makes more sense For the more useless projects bleed back To bitcoin and and not all of them do But most of them do Bitcoin absorbs that Liquidity rallies eventually the Purchasing power of the altcoins with Respect to bitcoin is so low that it can No longer sustain the Bitcoin USD price Than Bitcoin dumps the altcoin market Again has nowhere to hide but um If you think about it like it’s all About sort of the uh the the ebb and Flow of of the business cycle I mean if If we’re in QT we’re in higher interest Rates Um and and we’re seeing more a flight to The Blue Chips but guess what what do You think is going to happen when when We’re back up here with the blue chip Dominance what do you think is going to Happen well by that point you know risk Assets are likely going to be begging For the FED to go back to QE and at some Point they will they always do Um and and then you’ll see a more Sustained move back to the downside in The Blue Chip dominance as people then Start to speculate a little bit more Seriously on the altcoin market Um this is my best guess right and I
Don’t want to give you the impro I mean I I know I I don’t get everything right There’s plenty of things that I say that Are do not come true so I don’t want People to think that I have the Impression that that I think that I know It’s not true Um but I I do think that in in general The the calls for the dominance to go Higher on a Bitcoin only rally really Has happened now we just need to see if The reverse plays out so when Bitcoin USD corrects does the dominance keep Going higher and if it does then I think The thesis has finally been validated if It doesn’t then I guess I’m uh I guess I’m just a um a Uh A Relic from a prior cycle myself huh So anyways um We will I don’t know if we are I don’t Even know if I want to look at the chat To be completely honest but uh we have About three thousand three or four Thousand people watching if you guys Like the content again make sure you Subscribe give the video a thumbs up we Are still running the sale and into the Crypto versus premium uh into the Cryptiverse.com so make sure you check That out if you uh want to join But as I’ve said before you know you Don’t It’s more so Yeah
A lot of people are probably just you Know better off DCA and whatever they You know whatever they want over the Next year or something Um So Um No I’m not really I’m not a believer in Super Cycles the the lengthening cycle Stuff we I said was wrong long ago right I mean I we we in February of 2022 I Said uh we’re in a bear market right Um so that that did not play out yeah I Mean it’s a you know it’s important to To talk about the things that don’t play Out and the things that do and that was One that didn’t uh but once I recognized It You know in Feb I think it was January February I said all right guys the all Coinmark is now just going to bleed for A while back to bitcoin and I think That’s been the case Um last cycle was tricky because you Know the first Peak seemed obvious to Sell into uh that’s where I sold most of My Bitcoin last cycle was into the first Peak uh reaccumulated some in the summer Of 2021 and expected it to go higher in Late 2021 and it didn’t go as high as I Thought so then I ended up not Recognizing it until uh q1 of 2022. Um but I mean that’s that’s the game we Play right some some are going to go
Better than others uh but anyways if There are any questions maybe I will I Will uh try to try to answer a few It looks like some people are asking About Um All coins I I don’t really think I I Really still don’t think altcoins are Are that attractive from a risk or Risk-adjusted returns perspective I mean You know there’s a difference in my mind Not in a lot of people’s minds I think But in my mind there’s a difference Between like your your return and your Risk adjuster return you know like I’m Not saying you can’t go out and make Money on all coins right I mean there’s Still money sort of sloshing around Um but again the altcoin market as a Whole hasn’t gone anywhere for months Right I mean we’ve been the all coin Market total three has basically been Flat since January Right total three market cap so the Moves that you’re seeing in the altcoin Market are not a reflection of new money Coming into the space it’s more so a Reflection of people just moving from One altcoin to another and and trying to Extract as much liquidity and as much Value as they can that’s the reality I’m Not saying you can’t make money doing it But it is a zero-sum game so Um if you’re making money someone else
Is losing money you know if you’re Losing money I mean someone else is Making money so do be aware of that Um Yeah someone asked if I can look at Bitcoin uh by MTN I I actually looked at This earlier so this is A little bit of an interesting chart Um to to look at to say the least so We’ll first cover Bitcoin USD without M2 One of the things that you’ll remember We actually have a video on the channel Like right here Where I said Bitcoin has already Retested it’s 2017 High you know and This was back in July of 2021 because if You think back then a lot of people were Calling for 20K right it’s a 20K is Coming and We put out a video in July In July of 2022 or sorry 2021 Saying look Yes It’s possible we retest 20K But What happens What happens if we Divide by the money supply now before we Get into this why divide by the money Supply well the reason why you divide by The money supply is look at the S P 500 Divided by the money supply Look at the S P 500 divided by the money Supply
Hasn’t gone anywhere in decades right Since 97 like the current valuation of The s p divided by the money supply is The same as it was in 1996 1997. same Thing If the money supply goes up there’s more Dollars in existence more people will Buy assets with them right you go take a Look at M2 by the way It’s been going down recently right so That’s a that’s a headwind for risk in General uh but at some point it’ll start To go back up so then what happens if You take Bitcoin and divide it by M2 So I think it’s a worthwhile way to look At it and so we did this you know we did This back in July of 2021 and said look If you take Bitcoin and you divide it by M2 we’re already testing the prior All-time high from 2017 right now you Forget forget having to go back down to 20K We’re already testing it so you don’t I Mean if again it’s important to account For the dollars you know you know that Of all the all the new money that’s That’s been printed Um so here we were retesting the All-time high it doesn’t look like it You divide by M2 Perfect retest at the all-time high now We’re testing it from below I’m not Saying it can’t break above it could Right hasn’t broken above yet
Um so that is an important level so I Mean in the same way that we came back Down to the 2017 high and held it as Support when accounting for M2 we’re now Trying to break through it but from the Other direction and you can see over Here it actually took two attempts to Sort of break through this now we’re Currently on our first attempt to break Through so if it comes back down then I I suppose we’ll just try again later And and then we’ll and then we’ll break Through if we don’t if we don’t now So that was a good question I think I Think accounting for M2 is a is a thing That we should all be doing because you Know the reality is and I it’s a Sobering reality and you know I I know it’s kind of you know it’s kind Of obnoxious for me to say this kind of Stuff but yeah again like sometimes it’s An illusion that you’re making money is The reality right you know one reason we Invest is just to keep up with inflation Because if you just let everything sit In Fiat forever it’s going to be debased Essentially to zero so by investing you Have the ability to at least outperform Inflation is the idea but it is a Sobering reality at times when you think About how sometimes the valuation of Your portfolio is up not because You know not because the underlying Asset is up or or whatever or it’s
Fundamentally worth more it’s just There’s more dollars in existence and so Those dollars have to go somewhere You know this is the S this is the s p Divided by M2 and look at the s p not Divided by M2 right I mean it’s Basically just up and to the right you Know Um so the money supply does make a a big Deal when thinking about risk Assets in General it is it’s a very important Thing I think to look at Because it sort of reflects the idea That all these all these dollars in Existence are are just inflating the Supply or inflating the market caps Everything think about it like this Right like let’s say your portfolio goes Up 2X Over you know a certain period of time Let’s say it goes up let’s say it goes Up 2x over I mean obviously it Inflation’s not those high but let’s Just say uh you know your portfolio goes Up 2x over a year That’s great but what happens if Everything you you depend on went up 2x In a year like what happens if housing Prices went up 2x in a year what happens If your grocery bill went up 2x in a Year what happens if it costs you twice As much to fill up your car with gas you Know so it’s like all right well your Portfolio went up 2x but so did
Everything else so you know it’s like Congratulations on your portfolio going Higher but that doesn’t necessarily mean You’re going to feel any wealthier so That’s why you know that’s why it’s Important to sort of consider these Things and where you’re putting your Money sometimes sometimes assets can go Up against the US dollar But so what a lot of them are just Bleeding back to bitcoin over the macro Scale I would argue that if you’re not Valuing your your crypto portfolio in Satoshi’s you’re doing it completely Wrong okay the USD valuation is is Completely relevant because you know if You’re holding an altcoin and it goes up It goes up 10 and then Bitcoin went up 50 who cares right you’re not a genius For picking an altcoin that went up 10 It’s silly that you held on to so much Risk while you could have just held the Less risky thing and and it went up much More a lot of all coins the reality is They bleed against Bitcoin over the Macro scale they can outperform for a Cycle or two some of them can can can Hold their own for even longer but a lot Of these I mean you know and I’m going To pick on Litecoin just because I can Also throw in the caveat that during It’s having year it can typically Outperform uh you know up until about June I’ve said that many times but you
Know when you look at at Litecoin Bitcoin And you go back and and look at it over The years It’s just bleeding against Bitcoin right I mean this is this is just a downtrend Okay so it’s like yeah can Litecoin go Up in a bull market yeah but for every Dollar you put in Litecoin it’s a dollar You didn’t put in a Bitcoin it’s a Dollar you didn’t put into ethereum and The Blue Chips typically outperform Right they typically outperform ethereum Put in new highs Bitcoin put in new Highs what did Litecoin do what did it Do last cycle It went up to the prior High near New Highs And I’ve said before I mean you know Litecoin can can show relative strength And I just I’ll I’ll give it it sort of Time in the sun here just because Um I know there’s got to be someone in the In the uh in the uh in the comments that That likes Litecoin so I will say you Know we we have typically seen it show Relative strength like it is showing Right now going into sort of the having So we are we are still seeing something Like that play out it doesn’t mean that It can’t come back in and then go back Up uh but During the having years it can show
Relative strength with respect to the Altcoin market for like the first five Or six months so we’re already in month Four Um so I will give it that which is why I Also picked on it because I knew I could I knew I could point that out Um All right any other questions Show BBQ coin Uh it’s from a uh from an era long ago No I mean I I actually used to hold Litecoin back in the day Um but I I don’t hold it anymore When I say back in the day I mean like Like six years ago Yeah I asked questions and everyone Wants to know about all coins I’ve Already told you guys I’ve already told You my uh my opinion on all coins Well maybe we should wrap it up yeah I Mean as far as Bitcoin I I’ve just said Right DCA according to risk levels That’s what I’ve historically done the Only crypto I’ve even picked up in in Like 15 months is Bitcoin Um I haven’t picked up any other Cryptocurrencies so Um I think we’ll wrap it up there Um where you know you guys are just Asking about all coins and uh that’s not Really my interest right now so uh go to Another Channel and ask them about all
Coins I’m sure I’m sure they’ll tell you The next 100x all coin Gems we’ll wrap It up there thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and I will