Bitcoin Dominance

By | April 18, 2023

Let’s address the elephant in the room shall we?

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Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we’re going To talk about Bitcoin but more Specifically we’re going to talk about The Bitcoin dominance if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And also check out the sale on into the Cryptographers premium at into the link is in the Description below or the pinned comment Let’s go ahead and jump in I will say I was not planning on making Another video on bitcoin dominance this Quickly but of course a lot of people Have asked me to given the most recent Pullback and sometimes I do think is Worthwhile to address The elephant in the room and so that’s What we’re going to do we will not shy Away from it now before we get into this I do want to mention one of the reasons We talk about this so much because I Think a lot of new people to the Cryptiverse might be unaware of the Importance of talking about the Dominance and I’ve explained it as best I can as many Times as I can but the point is in General trying to identify phases of the Market of the market cycle where Bitcoin As a whole outperforms the altcoin Market and we essentially identified That you know a long time ago right I

Mean going all the way back to really The end of 2021 and we’ll talk about how That’s worked out so far but the reason We did that was because when you when You invest in anything you always have To consider what is the risk involved Right what is the risk involved and if You’re going to take on a certain amount Of risk then you want to make sure that You’re getting you know a higher reward For rather than taking on a lesser Amount of risk right so like if you if You wanted to take on a large amount of Risk then the expectation was that it’s Outperforming a portfolio with a lower Amount of risk but if you’re going to Take on all this risk and it’s just you Know you would have been better off Holding Bitcoin then you have to ask Yourself well what’s the point right What was the point of taking on more Risk if you could have outperformed it Um just simply holding Bitcoin and this Is why I said you know back in early you Know in you know the first quarter of 2022 is that all coins should in general Bleed back to bitcoin over you know over The next 18 to 24 months or so right That’s the general expectation that they Bleed uh not only in the bear Market Year but also in their recovery year as Well that they just continue to bleed Back to Bitcoin now again it’s not all All coins there’s always some that

Outperform and and please please don’t Misunderstand that I I’ve said that many Times and even in in 2019 uh I you know I I had chain link and it it Outperformed Bitcoin so I’m fully aware That the some alts will outperform it’s Just really hard identifying which ones Those are going to be and and the more Cycles I think you’re in crypto you Probably just become more and more risk Averse as time goes on uh but I will say You know this move by the Bitcoin Dominance it feels quite substantial Um however another way to look at it is You know literally a month ago the Dominance was at 43 a month ago you know It was a 43 and now we have all of Crypto Twitter freaking out that it’s Pulled back to 46 percent And you know even bullish on on the Bitcoin dominance for quite some time And don’t lose sight of the overall Trend and the overall trend is up we’ve Talked about this for a long time and Even back over here we put out a video Saying that it would likely shift Momentum in September right we said in September it will likely shift momentum That’s when it normally does shift Momentum perhaps this September will be A shift But the other direction right maybe You’ll let me say maybe in Q3 you’ll Hear me say something like all right

Well maybe it’ll go down for a while the Dominance Let’s not get too carried away right but Hey maybe that’ll happen so the point And we said this in the last video is That look we’ve had several moves up and We’ve had consolidation right we had to Move up here and then we got some Consolidation for a while and then we Had this move up and consolidation right Another move up more consolidation and Now another move up Guess what I just see it as as more consolidation One thing to note this time at least What’s happened so far is that we Haven’t really seen the same type of Major quick you know downtrend in the Bitcoin dominance that we saw back over Here in in the summer of 22 where the Dominance essentially fell from 48 to 43 Percent in a mat in a span of a week Okay it’s more of a slower move this Time and I think part of that is because Uh you know people might be a little bit More skeptical Of the altcoin market at this stage uh Than they were back in the summer 2022 It doesn’t mean that they can’t move I Mean look if Bitcoin chills at a certain Level long enough especially about the 20 week estimate of course you can see All coins go up on on their USD Pairs And on their Bitcoin pairs but it

Doesn’t mean that it’s going to be a Sustained move okay I I do think that we Are just on a pause right now just like We were back over here just like we were Here and just like we were here before An eventual move higher and when I say An eventual move higher what I mean by That I think that move I think that this Consolidation phase by the by the Bitcoin dominance will probably end at Some point Um in the next few weeks I don’t really Think it’s going to take you know three Months to play out I think it could be Over some point Um just in the next few weeks before the Dominance continues on its path to the Upside so I still see this as nothing More than a consolidation off of this Most recent move to the upside if you Were to Overlay or add on here the bull Market support band You’ll see in fact that we’ve been Holding support at it right I mean we’ve Been holding support at the bull market Sport band we had support over here Um at you know when the dominance was Around 41 right so we have it at 41 Right here and then we held support Right here at around 43 percent Okay so 41 43 now the 20-week SMA is 44.33 21 with qma is 44.78 so you could Argue that the bull Mark sport band for The Bitcoin dominance currently is

Around that 44 to 45 level and it is Moving up somewhat quickly right so you Know if the dominance does continue to Fall over here in the short term I would Still be looking at some type of of Support at these levels if it if it has To fall back that far it might not even Fall back that far I mean it might just Do something like what it did back over Here where it essentially goes you know Somewhat sideways for a month or Something or would maybe a slightly Bearish bias Um you know something something like That where you know it just sort of Trend sideways for a little bit maybe Allows this 20-week estimate to sort of Slowly catch up to it before popping up Above 50 so I still am of the the you Know opinion that the dominance will Break 49 I think it’s probably gonna do It within the next couple of months Right now it’s clearly in some Consolidation Um off of this large move higher but do Note that we’ve only moved back to where We were just really I mean we were at This level just a couple weeks ago I Mean if you think about it right it was A couple weeks ago the dominance was at This level but I would even argue that We still have plenty of room to Consolidate here and it still be a Fairly normal move by the dominance if

You were to look at at say like the RSI Or something on the weekly Um you can see it has cooled off a Little bit here on the daily it’s it’s Cooled off quite a lot in fact coming All the way back down to around 44 or so If you look at this consolidation area Right here it sort of bottomed out the RSI around 43 Um and and over here at bottom dial Closer to around 31 or so Um but do know the you know these Consolidation phase allow some of these Things allow some of these metrics to Reset before an eventual move higher and I do think we’re gonna likely going to See that and it might be it might be not Until May that we see that move back up To the upside I was hoping it would be Quicker but at this point I still could Be a few weeks away the other thing that I wanted to mention is you maybe heard Me say that we’ve been talking about That you know we’ve been saying that all It’s been bleeding it’s Bitcoin for Quite some time And how we we like to identify the phase Of the cycle where where Bitcoin Outperforms uh relative to the altcoin Market and you might say Well it has That really been true since you know Since 20 you know since the q1 of 2022 Because uh an astute Observer might say Well you know q1 of 2022 was here and

Yes initially you were correct but then We came back down and again my retort to This once again is just that when you Include stable coins It doesn’t look as bullish uh but I Think any any reasonable investor would Say hey there is some Merit to excluding Stable coins when accounting for the Bitcoin dominance so that we can better Understand how the altcoin market is Doing with respect to you know two Bitcoin right I mean I think there is Some Merit into into thinking about it Like that and and again when you do that You get a chart that looks like this and Here you can see that January of 2022 Was right here and ever since then the Dominance excluding Stables just Continues to put in one Higher low after Another uh We’ve covered this quite Frequently and I know a lot of people Have been critical of this idea but you Know what I mean all the uh all the the Critical nature of it has not changed The fact that the dominance has Continued to just really put in one Higher low after another and ultimately That’s what I think it will do again Here I think it’ll just be a higher low I do think the altcoin market will Eventually bleed back to bitcoin and and You can see that I mean really January 2022 it’s mostly just been an uptrend And we did get a little ahead of

Ourselves back over here in June but it Still slowly continues to Trend Um you know to the upside and and you Can clean this up and and maybe look at It like a uh a 30-day SMA of it and and Kind of see that the dominance has built Out a pretty strong base over here and Will likely continue to slowly head back Up to to the upside And again you know if you look at a lot Of altcoins I I think the relevant part That you need to look at is their Bitcoin Pairs and what you’ll notice at Least for most of them you’ll notice That where have they rallied to right Right back up to their to their bull Mark sweatpants right like look at Ada Bitcoin on its uh on the weekly If you look at Ada Bitcoin on the weekly And an overlay the the bull market sport Band guess where Ada Bitcoin is right It’s still below it so it is interesting How these moves off of these lows can Certainly elicit A certain emotion from people but again It hasn’t really changed the trend I Mean this is as recently as as a month Ago ate a Bitcoin put in a new low this Cycle right at least you know since its Peak it just put in a new low and and You can get these bounces back to the 20-week SMA Um but there’s still a good chance it’s Going to hold as resistance I mean look

At dot Bitcoin right it still hasn’t Even made that move yet no guarantee That it’s going to but again if it does It still likely will get rejected just Like every previous attempt to Um you might say well at some point Doesn’t it have to break well yeah I Mean it probably will at some point uh But I I suspect that a sustained brake On on a lot of these alts on their Bitcoin pairs won’t likely come until You know the later on this year Um that’s what we’ve seen with a lot of Different uh alts and prior Cycles And you could look at you know you could Look at Solana Bitcoin and guess where It’s rallied right back up to the bull Mark sport band the same area that it’s Been holding resistance you know Essentially since January 2022 when we Said this is the time to put on your Bitcoin Maxi hat you know I get accused Of being a Bitcoin Maxi on a daily basis Um and but the point is is you know There’s a time to to put on the Bitcoin Maxi hat and wear it for a couple years And just watch the altcoin market slowly Bleed back to bitcoin and then there’s a Time to take that that hat off and and You know sit back and watch the altcoin Market do its thing and listen I mean Like if you’re trading the all coins I I Know there’s money to be made out there I’m not trying to say that you can’t

Make money but you know all season is is Is normally comes from a place of high Bitcoin dominance like you know 70 60 Um something like that I’m not not Saying that they can’t go up and we have Seen some go up it’s just not it’s not The same type of all season that a lot Of you are familiar with right like that We had in 2021 it’s not that type of all Season it it could be like a you know a Very short period where small coins do Okay but look we’ve seen time and time Again these all coins get rejected on Their bulmark scorpion with respect to To bitcoin and and I mean you can go Down the list right Ave Bitcoin still Below it avax Bitcoin guess for a rally Too the bullmark sportpan Matic Bitcoin Guess where that is still below the bull Mark squarepen BNB Bitcoin it’s not a Pretty nice move recently it’s nowhere Close to the bullmark sport band so yes You know have have some of the all coins Had some bounces off these off of these Local lows and hasn’t led to the to the Pullback in the dominance of Bitcoin It’s true I would retort that the most likely Outcome As for most of these all coins to get Rejected by the bull market on their Bitcoin pairs for that to ultimately act As support the the bull Mark scorpion to Act as support for the Bitcoin dominance

Over the next few weeks whether whether We go down to it or if we just Consolidate until it catches up uh I Think is somewhat irrelevant but I do Think we will ultimately continue to see The dominance continue to head higher And I know it’s difficult on like a Daily basis or a weekly basis but then There’s this aspect to sort of looking At it excluding stable coins taking a Step back and saying you know what 15 months ago we said Bitcoin is going To outperform the altcoin market right And sure enough it slowly has and sure Enough you find altcoin after all coin Down 70 80 against Bitcoin and literally Every step of the way People said their altcoin was holding up Well right every step of the way this is What was said and and you still find These all coins down 70 80 against Bitcoin so just keep that in mind I mean Like look guys it’s okay to poke fun Um you know at me or the Bitcoin Dominance anytime it makes these moves To the downside but I hope you can at Least appreciate the fact that most of These all coins have been bleeding back To bitcoin for over a year now it will Likely continue into the summer Um so I would say do not be Um loiled into a false sense of security Here just because it has moved back Below 47 uh again the bull Mark

SquarePants is around that 44 to 45 Percent level I would like to see that hold at the Very least but again we held it over Here and we didn’t go down to it we just Sort of had a slightly bearish bias Until we hit it and then we exploded you Know exploded back up Um to the upside so you know it could Just be something like that rather than A capitulation now to it and honestly I Would prefer something like that right Just maybe come back in pop back up and Continue continue on the journey and Another way to look at this is Potentially the dominance itself is is Having a parabolic move This might sound a little crazy but Um if you were to switch this over to Say like a daily time frame and you can Sort of just draw a curve here again These curves are easy to manipulate so I’m not asking you to take it to the Bank but you can sort of draw a curve Here and just kind of see that the Dominance is on a a parabolic move Higher right I mean and and every single Time it comes back in A lot of people a lot of people get get Confident that it’s going to go to new Lows but the reality is it just Continues to to put in one Higher low After another and this time will likely Not be any different and it should

Should continue on back up to the upside If we do see that if we do see this type Of move back up to the upside Then that is where I would finally get Interested in the altcoin market and and I would say that the reason I would get Interested after a potential you know Like let’s say it does something like This If it sort of comes back in and then Pops back up the reason I would start to Get interested in the altcoin market up Here is because at that point I might Look at some of these all coins and say You know they’ve they’ve bled 90 or Something against Bitcoin We know that they can give out size Gains at various phases and and so by The time you get to those levels of of Devaluation against Bitcoin They can start to make make sense from a Risk adjusted return perspective where You might actually think hey maybe this Altcoin will outperform Bitcoin over the Next year right but I don’t think we’re There yet and again you look at any of These all coins a lot of these all coins I mean you know this is I mean here’s Ada Bitcoin right it’s just been a Downtrend right I mean and it’s it it Seems somewhat silly to have to you know To have to keep defending this this idea But look these are just down Trends I Mean look at dot Bitcoin it’s just it’s

Just been a a massive downtrend for a Long time and and I mean you can try to Catch the falling knives if you want to But there’s nothing yet about these Altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs that Suggest that they are are done with Their macro bleed the other thing I want To remind you is and I I’ve said this Many times when you think about where we Were in 2019 when I was bullish on the Yellow coin market right I was very Bullish on the altcoin market back then Look what happened to the altcoin market Right 50x move right I mean ethereum went up 50x basically Um you had cardano which went up 100x You know now now we have people you know Up in arms because you know because Cardano’s rallied up two acts off the Off the low uh or not even and some of These all coins are up 50 but listen I Mean in the in in crypto when you’re When you’re talking about the altcoin Market the 50 move you know 50 moves That’s just yeah that’s just a Tuesday Right I mean it’s just a Tuesday it’s Not it’s not the same type of thing so Try to separate a you know sort of a a Normal volatile market and and Deviations back to reversions to the Mean right and I I one way to visualize That is is with say like a reversion to The mean is is say like Take Salon a

Bitcoin I think a great example is is Can be found with Solana Bitcoin and When you look at the sole Bitcoin Valuation On the weekly You know what we had over here if you Remember was just a you know a downtrend Right it was just trending down right Just a general Trend down if you if you Were to just draw a line from this level Here it was just sort of trending down And and what happened is we saw a Massive capitulation Followed by another move back up now a Lot of people got very excited on this Move back up what did we say back then Hey guys it’s probably the same thing as This everyone’s gonna get excited and All that’s going to happen is it’s Likely just gonna bleed back down and And and then it’s likely going to Eventually put a new low okay what’s Happened since then well it’s not Putting a new low yet although I do Think it will eventually but it has bled Back down it’s popped back up recently This is just a mean reversion I mean it You know it hasn’t done anything more Than just sort of revert back to the Mean downtrend line it hasn’t hasn’t Really you know put in any higher highs Um or anything like that and you know I Mean it doesn’t mean it can’t pop back Up a little bit more but the point is

That and if and you should have figured This out by now right like I shouldn’t Have to remind you but the point is if You look back on on a lot of these all Coins and think about how excited Everyone got every time they they Rallied on their Bitcoin Pairs and then Look what eventually happened right look What eventually happened they ultimately Resolved to the downside A potential retort is will eventually They don’t have to and you would be Correct but a retort back to that is There are some altcoins that just lead To bitcoin like over and over and over Again Um you know Litecoin is a is a great Example and I’m gonna pick on it because This is having here so right now it is Showing relative strength Um but again you know some of these all Coins this is Litecoin Bitcoin going Back to 2017. you know this is just a Macro downtrend right like it it doesn’t Necessarily ever have to stop you know Like I think there’s this this uh Misunderstanding that all these all Coins will eventually find their macro Bottom against Bitcoin uh and and then Take off into another bull market but Look at look at Litecoin Bitcoin I mean It’s just been a massive downtrend since 2017. you know take a look at at Dash Bitcoin right this is another example uh

That you could you know that you could Take a look at and I mean it had it had Its sort of Heyday back over here and And then look what happened like imagine If you had been expecting this to go put In new highs in the last bull market I Mean it put in a peak back in March of 2017 and it’s just been a downtrend ever Since so assuming that the altcoin has To find a macro bottom against Bitcoin Could be a faulty assumption right there There is a chance that the altcoin that You hold is just a macro bleeder right Like there is a chance that that is the Case that there’s plenty of other Examples that we could talk through uh Monero is is one that we that actually Had a pretty good uh a pretty good year Not or a pretty good time not too long Ago but in the grand scheme of things Right it itself I mean hasn’t really Done anything I mean it’s high I was in 2017 and since then Hasn’t really done anything spectacular I mean it’s just been putting in Um lower lower valuations as time goes On with some somewhat impressive rallies Here and there but nowhere near the Height that it went in 2017. I put forth to you the idea that again a Lot of the altcoins that are near and Dear to your heart that you that you Became very close to and accustomed to And they have the best community and

Everything right some of them will not Stop bleeding against Bitcoin you know The first time I I recognize this you Know a couple Cycles ago I didn’t really Want to believe it right I mean to be Completely honest they want to believe It you know I I thought no there’s no Way right like these all coins will Eventually catch back up and then what I See happen is is you see you what you’ll Likely see happen is at some point right You know you’ll see you’ll see another Massive new wave of participants in the Cryptoverse comeback and you might say Well is that happening now well look Maybe Bitcoin USD has had a fairly nice Rally back up to 2930k from the lows but It’s sort of a Counterpoint to some of This is is look at some of the social Statistics right like look at at YouTube Subscribers to to a lot of the a lot of The crypto YouTube channels including my Own right including my own a seven day Estimate this shows that on average We’re losing 1200 subscribers Um you know this is on on a um By a daily resolution I believe right so 1200 subscribers now that doesn’t mean That every channel is losing subscribers But the point is that what you’re seeing Right now is not an influx of new people To buy your you know to buy the all coin Packs right Um you’re you’re seeing relatively low

Levels of activity here right people are Leaving the cryptovers Again I mean don’t take it up with me Just take it up with the chart right I Mean like look at these these are very Popular YouTube accounts these are not Just they’re not just small YouTube Channels that you’ve never heard of I Bet you recognize all these YouTube Channels Um and again including my own right Including my own and I’m not trying to You know I I see people say well like It’s because they were you know they’re Just not getting traction for for one Reason or another it’s just an excuse Right the reason the reason the the Champ they’re not getting traction is Because people don’t care right now is The truth people don’t care and if a 2X Rally can’t bring them back then they’re Probably not going to come back until We’re in more favorable monetary policy And people are not worried about getting Laid off every every week so you know I I put forth this idea that when when We’re at these low activity levels like We are here The dominance should in general continue To go up right look at this chart for a Minute like really look at it when did The dominance fall off a cliff Did it fall off a cliff When

Activity level was low or when it was High Look at this right here when did when Did A lot of new people come into the space When did this start 2021 January 2021 is when we saw a ton Of people come back to the space January 2021 Go look at the Bitcoin dominance For a minute So let’s go back let’s go Find the the dominance What happened in January 2021 Right Right here The dominance Fell off a cliff And we said it was going to back then we Said ethereum is going to go up a lot Against Bitcoin and the dominant should Go down and it did but I’m saying right Now that There the you know this is a Tailwind For dominance is the fact that now There’s not really a whole lot of Interested people right now and and You’re not really seeing people tune Back in here activity was trending up Like in November and December before Before the dominance broke down what’s Going on here right like it’s trending Not in the right direction again right Now on average these channels

Collectively not any individual Channel But collectively right now we’re losing Subscribers okay so it’s not going in The favorable Direction and during these Phases where there’s not a whole lot of Activity it just means there’s not a lot Of people to come into the space and to Continue to push the altcoin market to To like all-time highs right to to crazy Valuations that that you’re that you’re Hoping for doesn’t mean that they can’t Go up right it doesn’t mean that you Can’t see some of these all coins rally On up doesn’t mean that ethereum can’t Go higher it doesn’t mean that Um you know it doesn’t mean that cardano Or polka dot or chain link or Avalanche It doesn’t mean that you can’t see them Push higher on their USD pairs on say Like a shorter time frame like a one two Three week time frame it doesn’t mean That okay but what it does mean is that This is a Tailwind for the dominance to Head higher over the next like say three To six months is the fact that we don’t Really see a whole lot of activity here And there’s not really any evidence that It’s changing either okay if you had if We saw a lot of new people coming in Then I might you know I might be willing To change my mind but we don’t really See that we we just see people leaving Um so and normally when that’s the case It just means it’s a Tailwind for the

Dominance and again I mean you know I I To sort of summarize right I mean I I I Would sort of suspect that the dominance Is just in the consolidation phase right Now Um and and it should it should start to Make its move back up to the upside Sometime in May if not before right Sometime in May if it if it doesn’t if It doesn’t do so before And in fact you can see that that last Last May oh what happened right I mean So the dominant surged into March right And then in April in in late March and Then in April you could see it came back Down and Consolidated right so it surged Up to 44 came back down Consolidated Around that 41 42 percent level for About a month about and it basically Just stayed flat there in April for About a month And then the dominance shot up But it shot up over here because Bitcoin Went down right and I’m saying now the Reason the reason I’m focusing on the Dominant so much is because the point is Is it doesn’t matter the direction of Bitcoin USD you know whether it goes up Whether it goes down right doesn’t Matter the point is that You know over the next three to six Months the dominant should go up either Way that’s the point and and if if you Think that if you agree with that

Than you know the altcoin market is Still a very high risk play now you know I put this video out fully knowing that Over the next week or two we could see All coins make moves on their USD Pairs And on their Bitcoin pairs but let’s try To think ahead you know two to three Months Where will they likely be and I I still Put forth the idea that these all coins Will continue to bleed back to bitcoin Even if they even if they do experience Short-term moves back up to the upside And again I I think you I think you can Clearly see that just on a lot of these All coins just doing nothing more than Likely rallying back up to the the bull Marks program or the bear Market Resistance band if you prefer only Likely to get rejected I mean even if it Doesn’t get rejected immediately it Would it would still likely not be able To ultimately hold it as support which Would lead to it to a lot of them Continuing to sort of slowly put in new Lows and I I suppose the fact that some Of these all coins you know haven’t Really rallied all the way back up to Their bull marks workben gives them some Room to continue that move if they want To Um and and again it could it could still Temporarily put some pressure on the Dominance but again I mean you know I’m

Not I’m not necessarily convinced that I Can’t just do some type of consolidation Like this where it’s just maybe a slow You know a sideways move with a slightly Bearish bias rather than an outright Capitulation like we saw back over here In in June of 2022. so hopefully you Know if you’ve been waiting for me to Talk about the Bitcoin dominance and Address the elephant in the room here I Am addressing the elephants in the room But at this point I still stand by what I’ve said I don’t think it’s doing Anything more than consolidating but for An eventual move higher probably no Later than sometime in May is my guess Um but again we’ll wrap it up there Hopefully you guys enjoyed the content Make sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up again we do up into the Cryptoverse premium at into the check out the sale do Have we do have several different tiers Available including a free one so make Sure you check that out link is in the Description below I’ll see you guys next Time bye